› Market review, October 2 - 6, 2017

Market review, October 2 - 6, 2017

Oil
Last week was difficult for oil.
On Monday, after market opening , the price skyrocketed, reaching a maximum in the last 5 months.
This was caused by an agreement between OPEC and Russia on production cut.
Statements of the turkish President Erdogan, about plans to cut off supplies from Northern Iran to the Ceyhan oil port has affected the situation too.
Then, the price reached important resistance level of $ 50.81 per barrel.
It's not a secret that the influence of hurricanes Irma and Harvey on the production of shale oil in the United States have a short-term effect and last week the shale miners in America resumed work.
This was the main factor in price changes on Thursday and Friday.
Partially, this fact has affected the revision of forecasts made by analysts for 2018: they reduced the expected maximum by 20 cents, which within the market is a fairly significant change.
Accordingly, the main engines of the next week will be the above factors: the resumption of work on the oil shale oil fields and the further steps (or their absence) of Erdogan.
Since the events themselves have the opposite effect on the price of black gold, it is appropriate to turn to technical analysis.
The most likely scenario is the continuation of a downward price movement to levels of $ 50.24, $ 50.87 and $ 51.25 in the short term.
Then - the resumption of the upward movement to the local highs of $ 52.51, $ 52.89 and $ 53.52.


Market review, October 2 - 6, 2017


Gold

Earlier this week, tensions caused by Korean leader Kim Jong-un supported gold prices.
Besides gold, this fact supported Japanese yen.
Also, significant increase in the dollar affected the decline in the price of yellow metal and on Thursday the gold was at a minimum for a whole month.
The growth of the dollar was caused by the positive rhetoric of the Fed, reform of the tax system offered by the Trump and positive economic data.
First week of October, as usual, is important due to the publication of unemployed change data in the United States.
At the moment, expectations for it are negative, which, in turn, can positively affect the value of gold at the beginning of the week.
Publication of the same data from ADP can clarify the events that will occur on the first Friday of the month and from them we recommend to start by choosing the direction of trade in the second half of the week.
From the technical analysis, as we said, gold is traded at a fairly low price, and this can cause a slight correction to the level of $ 1291.18, and then, in case there will be no tension with North Korea - a decline to the levels of 1279.9 or $ 1271.43.


Market review, October 2 - 6, 2017


EUR / USD

After announcement of the Fed's plans for a further possible increase of the interest rate, mood of investors and the market created a new wave of US currency appreciation.
And this is reflected on the chart, there is an obvious downward trend, which easily passes strong levels.
New tax reform presented by US President Donald Tramp gives the dollar the confidence that wants to reduce the corporate tax from 35% to 20%.
According to Trump, this will serious support of the medium-sized business, and will strengthen the US economy, so, due to low taxes, producers will return production to the US, which will positively affect the employment level.
It is necessary to follow the developments in the House of Congress, this news will be the focus of this week.


Market review, October 2 - 6, 2017


DAX 30

The main production index of Germany continues to attack the peaks.
Last week, due to the weakening of the euro, and the possible continuation of the QE program, European indices and companies got a new hope for a further "subsidy" from the ECB.
As you can see in almost all European stocks and indexes.
If you take into account DAX, last week the key level of 12700 was broken, and the price went further upwards.
This week the price will fluctuate in the range of 12,700-12,800, but it is also necessary to take into account the possible correction after a confident growth.


Market review, October 2 - 6, 2017



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