› Weekly binary options technical forecast March 9 - 13

Weekly binary options technical forecast March 9 - 13

WTI Crude Oil: Bearish


One of the most lucrative trading cycles in the binary options market was to buy put options for WTI Crude Oil. After OPEC members failed to agree on production cut, the price of oil continued declining, breaking through the psychological round-figure support of $40 per barrel. On top of that, tensions between Saudi Arabia and Russia caused a new wave of a price war, crashing the oil market on Monday. WTI Crude dropped more than 30% during panic sell-off and reached the lowest price at $27.40 per barrel. This year’s decline exceeded 50% counting from the peak in January.
The intraday technical outlook is extremely oversold amid the recent plunge and the weekend gap. This is why it is important to have a wider look at the technical picture. The daily chart below points to extremely bearish sentiment. The Bollinger Bands indicator spread its lines, underlining the high level of volatility in the binary options market. The huge demand for put options pushed the price of oil below the bottom line of the BB indicator, signalling a strong bearish breakthrough. Stochastic RSI reflected the price action by bouncing back below the oversold threshold. Although the bullish rebound helped the price of oil to recover part of the recent drop, Stochastic RSI remained in the oversold territory, while both lines did not cross each other yet. Such an extremely negative technical outlook points to further selling pressure for the black gold in the week ahead, so binary options traders should keep buying put options.

Weekly binary options technical forecast March 9 - 13

USD/RUB: Bullish


The Russian Rouble reflected the plunge in oil prices as USD/RUB jumped to the highest level in four years. What’s more, the unusually high volatility forced the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to step in on Monday, cancelling all of the purchase orders for foreign currencies. That intervention together with the recovery in oil prices helped the USD/RUB currency pair to retrace from the local peak, however, the demand for call options could renew the buying pressure in the week ahead.
The technical outlook is extremely bullish as the recent spike was not born in a day, but prepared three weeks ago. The MACD trend indicator went into positive territory in the middle of the past trading week, the histogram turned green, while both lines were heading north. So the weekend gap was nothing but the acceleration of the bullish trend started much earlier. On top of that, Williams Alligator was in the bullish eating mode since the crossover on March 5, while the distance between the lines was growing. The recent bearish rebound reminds a technical correction, which always comes after such a sharp price swing. What the bears achieved on Tuesday was a test of the middle line of the indicator, which represents an attractive level to renew the trading activity of buying call options in the medium-term perspective. The indicator is far from performing an opposite cross on the four-hourly timeframe (see the screenshot below), so it is too early to talk about the bearish reversal. The fast and sensitive Williams %R oscillator bounced back to the middle range but did not cross the line of -50.00 points, which underlines that the bullish momentum is still strong. Therefore, put-option buyers have a long way to go before the technical sentiment would come back to neutral at least. If the surge continued this week, and the bulls lifted the exchange rate above 75 roubles per dollar, then USD/RUB could soar to the range of 78/82 seen in January 2016.

Weekly binary options technical forecast March 9 - 13

USD/CHF: Bearish


The US dollar was losing its strength versus major currencies on the back of the surge in the demand for safe-haven assets. The Swiss Franc was one of the strongest currencies in the past week as USD/CHF dropped almost 3% with the exchange rate testing the lowest level since February 2018. The bullish rebound occurred on Tuesday, signalling that real-money accounts and call-option buyers stepped in. However, the upside correction was limited and short-lived as put options are back in demand.
The four-hourly chart below shows that the bullish retracement might come to the end as the pair failed to test the former support now resistance level of 0.9400 Francs per Dollar. Although Parabolic SAR is still pointing to a bullish correction as its dots are below the current price, the Average Directional Index failed to chart an opposite crossover, while the -DI line (red) remained above the +DI line (green). The ADX mainline retraced from the peak value but stayed well above the threshold, which confirms the bearish momentum. Given the overall volatility in the financial markets and an exceptionally strong demand for safe-havens, further bearish action is very likely for the week ahead. When talking about possible targets, USD/CHF could decline to 0.9036 if the second test of the recent bottom at 0.9189 was successful. Put options with 4 hours expiration time look attractive to continue the by-the-trend cycle.

Weekly binary options technical forecast March 9 - 13

CAD/JPY: Bearish


One of the most attractive cross-rates to trade in the binary options market last week was CAD/JPY. The main fundamental reason was related to the different direction of two major pairs - USD/CAD and USD/JPY. The Canadian dollar was weakening versus the greenback amid the plunge in the price of oil, while the Japanese yen strengthened on the back of safe-haven flows. As a result, the CAD/JPY cross-rate faced a double hit from the demand for put options.
The four-hourly chart below shows the continuous series of red candlesticks with an extremely bearish technical sentiment. The Ichimoku Cloud trend indicator performed the bearish crossover, both lines and the rate dropped far below the span. On top of that, the bullish retracement was limited by the Base Line support curve, and two candlesticks have long upper shadows. All that points to a potential renewal of the demand for put options with a possible test of the bottom at 73.84 and acceleration towards 70.00.

Weekly binary options technical forecast March 9 - 13


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