› Weekly binary options technical forecast September 30 - October 4

Weekly binary options technical forecast September 30 - October 4

EUR/USD: Bearish continuation

The most popular currency pair kept sliding this past week on the back of consistent demand for put options across the board. The long-term analysis points to the lowest weekly close rate since May 2017, while the daily rate breached the recent bottom noticed in the first half of September. However, the trading activity was not smooth throughout the past week as EUR/USD was retracing several times, giving at least two obvious opportunities to enter the market with put-option cycles on the 60-minutes timeframe. First, the bulls lifted the quote up to 1.1020 resistance on September 24th, fast 13-hours Relative Strength Index crossed the middle level of 50%, signalling the beginning of the downswing, and MACD confirmed the signal after its lines performed the bearish crossover (see the red arrow and vertical lines on the screenshot below). Second, the rate charted a false breakout of the 21-hours exponential moving average, while RSI oscillator charted a bounce-by-trend spike, giving another opportunity to start buying put options for EUR/USD. Although the current sentiment is neutral as the rate is hovering around the EMA21 curve, the downside risk persists, making put-options buying more preferable. At the same time, it would be reasonable to wait for a bullish whipsaw and a more clear reversal signal from the technical indicator before entering the market again. Resistance levels are placed at 1.0950 and 1.0967, while supports come at 1.0907, 1.0900 and 1.0864 in extension.
Weekly binary options technical forecast September 30 - October 4

GBP/USD: Bearish acceleration

The mid-term bullish retracement is over for the British Pound versus the U.S. dollar as GBP/USD is back to the downtrend. However, there was another failed attempt by the bulls to get the Sterling out of the consolidation range above 1.2500 round-figure resistance on Tuesday. The daily high of 1.2503 triggered orders to buy put options and the pair dropped more than 200 pips in three-days bearish rally since then. The initial trading signal came from the 34-hours Bollinger Bands indicator as the rate failed to breach the upper line, which acted as the resistance (red arrow on the hourly chart below). Confirmation came from fast Stochastic RSI oscillator when its lines crossed each other in the overbought zone and crossed the threshold from above. After the final conclusion about the downtrend came and the price went into bearish territory, GBP/USD remained below the BB middle line till the end of the past week. The current sentiment is slightly bearish but the Double-Bolli shart setup suggests a potential upside swing before charting new lows because the current rate is inside the BB indicator with deviation 1 (yellow background). Resistance levels to start buying put options are as follows: 1.23065 (BB middle line), 1.23248 (intermediate line) and 1.23417 (upper band). Stochastic RSI has to be also monitored for reversal signals as it’s headed into the overbought territory during the London open. Once the bearish crossover occurred, binary options traders should consider starting buying put options for GBP/USD with 60-minutes expiration time.
Weekly binary options technical forecast September 30 - October 4

USD/JPY: Bullish consolidation

The Japanese yen charted a multidirectional intraday action this past week versus the U.S. dollar. Although USD/JPY gave chances to profit for both put- and call option buyers, the overall bias was mainly bullish. A combination of two technical indicators with different nature played a significant role in determining the trend direction, as well as pointing to reversals. As long as the pair stayed below the Ichimoku Cloud, the demand for put options remained sustainable until the 13-hour Relative Strength index went off the oversold territory. The first test of the upper band of the cloud was unsuccessful as call-option buyers lacked the momentum to breach the resistance, and USD/JPY slid back south as a result. The bullish divergence on RSI oscillator and oversold conditions forced binary options traders to switch the direction and call options became more attractive at the support level of 107.00 yen per dollar. After the mid-week reversal, the Ichimoku Cloud leading span turned bullish and the price charted a bullish breakout. Despite several downside swings and failed tests of support levels, the overall technical sentiment remained bullish. During the London open on Monday, USD/JPY had another test of the upper band of the cloud, offering an opportunity to start buying call options again. In case if the resistance range of 108.00 and 108.40 was breached by the rate, the uptrend could accelerate this upcoming week.
Weekly binary options technical forecast September 30 - October 4

NZD/USD: Bullish rebound

The New Zealand dollar was the strongest currency among majors this past week. With the help of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which had the interest rates meeting this week, and hawkish comments from officials, the market players changed the mood regarding the Kiwi. As a result of strong demand for call options, NZD/USD added +0.57% to the exchange rate on a weekly basis. However, the bullish rally was limited and short-lived as buyers of call options failed to lift the rate above 0.6350 resistance. The first reversal sing came in when the four-hourly candlestick charted a long upper shadow, underlining the strong demand for put options. The strongest bearish signal was noticed when Parabolic SAR dots jumped above the price, and the Average Directional Index turned negative. After a short-term bullish rebound, NZD/USD renewed the downtrend, erasing all of the previous gains. What’s more, the pair breached the horizontal static support at 0.62588 (the lowest close rate on September 20, blue line on the 4-hourly chart below). At the time of writing, the pair was trading with a bearish bias below the mid-term median line (dashed green), which could indicate a strong demand for put options in the week ahead.
Weekly binary options technical forecast September 30 - October 4

WTI Crude Oil: Bearish slide

Although the price of oil gapped past weekend on the upside, the recent downtrend resumed after the gap was filled. The descending green dashed line on the hourly chart below indicates the resistance of the channel, while the support is represented by the horizontal line according to the lowest hourly close noted last week - $55.43 per barrel. There was an attempt to breach the bearish triangle but the only thing left from that downswing was just a whipsaw. So far, the technical sentiment remains negative in all intraday time frames. However, put options would become more attractive once the Commodity Channel Index and Williams %R oscillator will have a spike towards the overbought zone. The trading week opened with a neutral sentiment as both indicators are hovering around the middle level, pointing to an uncertainty. Resistance levels include price marks of $56.09 (resistance trendline), $56.75 (the latest bullish whipsaw on September 27) and $57.30 (former support). Support pivot points are placed at $55.43 (blue line), $55.00 (psychological round-figure level) and $54.73 (weekly low). On a wider outlook, the price of oil could test $52.00 as early as this week.
Weekly binary options technical forecast September 30 - October 4


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