› MARKET REVIEW MARCH 11 - 15

MARKET REVIEW MARCH 11 - 15

EUR/USD

Data on the US labor market last Friday could be misleading for many market participants. Let us take a look at what really happened that day. The change in the number of people employed outside the agricultural sector was the lowest throughout last year (the last time such a weak increase in the number of people employed in this sector was in October 2017). Yes, the news is negative for the US economy, but wage growth on a monthly basis to 0.4%, and in annual terms up to 3.4%, which is also an annual record, only a positive one.

Therefore, the weak growth of those employed outside the agricultural sector puts pressure on the stock markets, when wage growth and falling unemployment to 3.8% supported the US dollar itself. Why? It is precisely because wage growth will increase the spending of the population, and this could push inflation. For inflation closely monitors the Federal Reserve.

At the beginning of the week, the rhetoric of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who will speak twice, today and tomorrow, will be extremely important. From what he will focus on, and will depend on the fate of the dollar these days. If you pay attention to the growth of wages and a decrease in unemployment, let's go to grow, if we talk about a weak NFP, then the dollar can be sold.

In addition, the week will be filled with volatile news. Monday is usually calm enough and does not carry any important news, but this week is not the case. In the morning, Germany will report on the volume of industrial production and trade balance, after which the Eurogroup meeting will begin. The USA will tell about the basic index of retail sales and their volumes.

On Tuesday, the Eurogroup meeting will continue in the Euro zone, where EU finance ministers will meet. The focus will be on the United States on this day. One of the most important news of the week will be American inflation and its basic indicator. If the increased wages can push up the indicator, then the chances of changing the Fed's rhetoric will increase, as well as the reasons to buy the dollar.

At the equator of the week, the EU will talk about the volume of industrial production. Releases of volumes of supplies of civilian means of production and basic orders for durable goods will be released in the USA. Also important will be the basic price index of producers, because raising wages to employees usually makes this growth increase in the price of products manufactured by the company.

Thursday will be a little more relaxed, which will allow market participants to build their future strategy according to the data already published. No news will not pass this day, albeit less volatile. The United States will report on import / export price indexes, the number of applications for unemployment benefits, and the US real estate sector will report on new housing sales late in the evening.

On Friday, the second most important news for the main pair will be released - inflation and its basic indicator of Euroblock. On a monthly basis, the CPI for February should show growth, according to a consensus forecast. The United States will publish data on the volume of industrial production in annual and monthly terms. JOLTS will publish statistics on the number of open positions in the labor market. The Michigan Institute will talk about the expectations and moods of consumers.
A busy week is ahead of us. Anyone who likes to trade in a single European currency, should not ignore the vote in the British Parliament on Brexit issues. Since if the decision is made to go hard, it will inevitably affect the EU economy, not just the British. More on this talk in a pair of GBP / USD.

MARKET REVIEW MARCH 11 - 15


GBP/USD

In just 18 days, the United Kingdom must leave the EU (March 29). British Prime Minister Theresa May is struggling (so far unsuccessfully) to bring about last-minute changes in the agreement on withdrawal from the EU. Two large factions of euro skeptics in the British Parliament have already warned that May is facing a heavy defeat.

If Teresa May still fails, parliamentarians can force her to seek a respite for Brexit. This, according to some, can lead to a repeated referendum, which is able to cancel exit from the EU at all. Others argue that without extending the exit, Britain runs the risk of facing an economic shock.

Negotiators, both from the EU and from Britain, have already shared their rather annoying comments. Two years go negotiations on the exit of Great Britain from the European Union and until now no consensus has been reached. In one, the majority came together unequivocally, time is no longer needed, a solution is needed. What fate awaits Britain completely depends on its government.

So, the first vote of the Parliament of Great Britain will take place on Tuesday. If it is a failure, the second vote will be held the next day, in which parliamentarians will have to decide for or against Brexit without a deal. Finally, if parliamentarians rule out Britain’s exit from the EU without a deal, then a vote will be held on Thursday to postpone the exit.

In addition to the vote of the British Parliament, on Tuesday there will be data on the GDP of Misty Albion, industrial production, manufacturing production and trade balance. A busy Tuesday for Britain.

On Wednesday, the UK annual budget and the spring budget forecast will be published. Of course, the voting results will have the highest priority in making decisions in the British pound sterling trade. Ignore the economic indicators are not worth it.

MARKET REVIEW MARCH 11 - 15


OIL

This week will feature a large meeting of large American companies in Houston, where the annual energy conference will be held. The United States became the leader in crude oil production this year, reaching 12+ million barrels per day.

The conference will meet such giants as Chevron, BP, Exxon Mobil, Royal Dutch Shell and Total. On behalf of the government will be US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and US Secretary of Energy Rick Perry.

The large presence of large companies, including American Exxon Mobil and Chevron, is due to the fact that these companies are investing in oil shale in western Texas and New Mexico and connecting these oil fields with their coastal refineries and chemical plants.

Amir Gerges, the head of the Perm branch of Shell, confirms the above, stating: “If we find excess cash during the current year or the price of oil rises quickly, then we can easily reinvest them for short-term cash flow.

On the other hand, the reduction in the number of drilling rigs in the United States for the third week in a row may signal a decrease in the production in the United States. The number of drilling rigs is a leading indicator of the production itself.

Saudi Arabia has assured that it is not going to change its plans to reduce production by June of this year. Therefore, the conference described above will receive more attention.

MARKET REVIEW MARCH 11 - 15


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