Analytics › MARKET REVIEW OCTOBER 15- 19



The main couple also will not let us get bored this week. Starting from Monday, the USA will publish volatile data, namely retail sales indices and their volumes. As we already know, retail sales are closely correlated with the GDP of the published countries. In a strong economy, such as the one in the United States, growth indicators are expected.

Tuesday will tell us about the economic sentiment in the first EU economy, and in the Euroblock as a whole. The US will publish the number of open jobs in the JOLTS labor market in August. The release of purchases of long-term TIC securities will also be important in the conditions of the US-China trade war.
By Wednesday, the main pair will be sufficiently heated and ready for new volatile releases. At 12:00 P.M. Moscow time, Europe will publish data on inflation in the Euroblock. In the base and annual indicator, change is not expected when the monthly indicator, as expected, will accelerate from 0.2% to 0.5%. On the other hand, in the conditions of increased risks due to Italy there was still no consensus found in the EU separation with Britain, it is hard to believe in the acceleration of inflation even on a monthly basis.

States on the equator of the five-day trading week will report to the construction sector. Issued permits and the volume of the construction of new homes in September. Later in the evening, the protocol of the Federal Reserve open markets committee will be published from the last meeting, when the interest rate was raised. In general, nothing new is expected. The Federal Reserve policy is simple, clean and clear. Regulator Chairman Jerome Powell has already shown that he is not going to take into account the comments of his President, Donald Trump, and even more so, to take them into account when making decisions about monetary policy.

On Thursday, the summit of the EU leaders will take place, with the conditions of increased risk of the Italian crisis, the summit will be extremely interesting. You don’t need to go to a fortuneteller to be sure that the Italian issue will be discussed at the summit. In the US trading session on Thursday, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia will publish an index of manufacturing activity and employment. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits will also have significance.

The week will end with sales in the secondary US housing market and a speech by the Federal Reserve Committee member Rafael Bostic. As we can see, the five-day trading week is saturated with volatile news.



This week is extremely busy for the British Pound sterling. In the face of positive signals in the Brexit negotiations between London and Brussels, economic indicators are gaining particular importance. From Tuesday, volatile data will be emerging, namely, the labor market report of the United Kingdom. The average wage level, changes in the number of applications for unemployment benefits, changes in employment and unemployment in the country.

The Bank of England believes that the average wage level will shift to the 3% mark. Under the conditions of zero growth in labor productivity, inflation will shift upwards, which in turn will force the Bank of England to revise its monetary policy. I’ll remind you, that at the moment, before the final separation of Britain from the EU, which is to occur in March next year, the Central Bank of England will not take any measures to make the monetary policy of the regulator more strict. However, the conditions above can change the rhetoric of the regulator.

On Wednesday, there will be data on the British inflation. The Bank of England has previously reported that it is expecting a slowdown indicator. As we can see, expectations foreshadow the slowdown in inflation both on a monthly and annual basis. However, if the growth in wages will surprise us, inflation data may be accelerated. That is definitely a bullish factor for the Pound sterling, which is already looking good.

On Thursday, there will be releases of retail sales indices and their volumes. As well as extremely volatile indicators, closely related to the GDP of any country, Britain is no exception. Here, the experts Bloomberg, also expect a decline in sales. Again, everything comes down to the salaries, as mentioned beforehand. If salaries rose, then more money was spent, therefore, sales will increase.

As you understand, the whole week is closely related to the wages in the United Kingdom. Upon the release of official data on Tuesday, you can safely plan a trading week based on the British Pound.



On the black gold market, passion does not abate. American sanctions on Iranian oil will come into action in three weeks, but almost all the risks associated with this are already taken into account in the financial quotes of oil, which has once again reach a new height of the last three years. It would have all been fine, but the oil traded using the US dollar becomes even more expensive for developing countries, because the dollar itself has become more expensive for holders of other currencies. Therefore, in India, a crisis is about to come, as the country buys about 1 million barrels a day.

The requests of the American President (more so demands than requests) of Donald Trump to increase the drilling and production of oil by the OPEC member countries were not crowned with success. Saudi Arabia assures that there is no shortage of supply in the market and no buyer is left without oil. Therefore, the giant exporter decided not to flood the market with supply.

Therefore, we can assess the current situation of prices of this asset as speculative. Indeed, in fact, the supply satisfies the demand, and the price rises only on precautions. The declining number of drilling rigs in the USA has grown. After three weeks of decline, the increase was as much as eight grand. In addition, in the face of China’s complete abandonment of American light oil, we can expect another growth in raw materials in the United States. Which should calm the prices.


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  • alex

  • 1 November 2018 18:32
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