Analytics › MARKET REVIEW AUG 27 - AUG 31



The economy of Canada had a weak start this year, similar to the US. However the southern neighbor accelerated since April, but the country of the maple leaf does not seem to be in a hurry. This casts doubt on the possibility of raising the interest rate by the Bank of Canada this year. Another hint is to be revealed by the economic calendar this week, to be more specific, on Thursday.

The opening of the US trading session will show the colors of the Canadian GDP in the monthly, quarterly and annual terms. Strangely enough, experts of Trading Economics expect the acceleration of the indicator almost twofold, compared to the same period last year. Which is definitely a bull factor for the Canadian dollar. Yes, the US president's protectionism, and NAFTA uncertainty, both put pressure, but the Bank of Canada always considers these negative factors when making a decision. Like the US Federal Reserve which is expected to raise rates in September. However, we will talk about this later.

If, however, Canada's GDP data disappoint expectations, the Canadian dollar naturally runs the risk of being sold out.



Euro-bulls managed to break through the resistance of 1,162 by repeatedly testing the level. However, Monday has traditionally begun with a correction in the form of profit fixation from last week's movement. Last Friday, Federal Chairman, Jerome Powell confirmed the regulator's intention to raise interest rates, despite criticism from his president. However, Powell's speech was not as hawkish as the investors expected it to be. Now there is caution present, a reasonable investor does not want to base decisions on the expectations for the next rate increase by the Federal Reserve.

Nevertheless, good market statistics can give confidence to the market. Consider the most volatile news of the week. In the face of reinforcing trade relations, as we remember, China's talks with the US last week were fruitful and the US expanded the list of Chinese goods to $50 billion last Thursday. The balance of foreign trades in goods for July will be published by the US on Tuesday.

On Wednesday, the United States will publish a second GDP estimate for the second quarter, which is expected to slow from 4.1% to 4.0% exactly. However, on Thursday will be more intense. An inflation of the first EU economy and the basic price index of expenditures on personal consumption, where the annual growth is expected to increase to 2.0%. This is one of the most important indicators for the Federal Reserve, the more people spend on personal needs, the higher the chances of accelerating inflation and, as a result, raising the interest rate.

On Friday, the European Union will publish data on inflation in the currency block. No special changes are expected here, but unemployment should be reduced by 0.1%. Which can give strength to Euro-bulls. In general, the week is very saturated for volatile news and opportunities to make good money.



Black gold is consolidated in a wide trading channel, where the whole price "shifted" from level to level all summer. Somewhere making up for the movement, somewhere cascading. It is not surprising, commodity markets react not only to the importance of having a supply in the market that satisfies demand, but also the demand that is still hanging on the oil market.

Last Thursday, the US expanded the list of Chinese goods to $ 50 billion, China promised to mirror them. This was at the time when the Chinese delegation arrived in the United States, in an attempt to settle with an agreement. Nevertheless, as we can see, no consensus was found.

In addition, this week will be an online conference of the OPEC+ member countries and outside OPEC, where they will discuss the current situation on the market. It is remarkable that the International Energy Agency expects the flood of the oil market to flood in 2019, as it has happened before.

The market of black gold is extremely intricate now, especially in the wagering statistics "on the contrary," as we could see a couple weeks before.. Therefore, it is necessary to take into account not only statistical data, geopolitical risks, but also the technical picture as a whole.


Gold, as always, gains from any weakening of the US dollar and before the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, has surely been gaining on fears about the criticism of the American president against the Federal Reserve. The regulator needed to declare his apolitical views that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise the interest rate, although it will do it gradually. Which was disregarded as a pigeon statement. Investors are no longer in a hurry to invest in the US dollar, but good statistics from the US can improve the situation for the better, or on the contrary, weaken the US dollar's position.

This week, extremely strong volatile news, which we reviewed in the pair EUR / USD. In addition, this week, it is expected that further attempts will be made to reach agreement between the Vice Ministers of China and the US, which should meet by the end of the week. After all, the last round of negotiations did not lead to anything.


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