The week started first on the Western economies, with the release of June’s Manufacturing PMI in the U.K and ISM Manufacturing PMI in the U.S. While the manufacturing PMI of June is relatively stable at 54.4 as forecasted (54.1), the ISM Manufacturing PMI rose sharply from May’s 58.7 to 60.2.
On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) issued its Rate Statement with a decision to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50%, while implying the low level of interest rates is continuing to support the Australian economy. In England, the Construction PMI was also released with a positive view of the construction industry, when the actual number was considerably higher than prediction (53.1 in compared with 52.6).
On the next day, Australia continued to open the world market first with the publishing of Retail Sales m/m and Trade Balance. The Retail Sales m/m was higher than forecast (0.4% in compared with 0.3%) but still a little bit lower than last month’s (0.5%). Meanwhile, the Trade Balance was a concern with the trade deficit increased to 0.83B from April’s 0.47B. The AUD/USD responded positively with 4 continuous days rising after a significant fall at the beginning of the week.
The spotlight of Thursday was on America with a number of indices issued besides the Trade War with China. The June’s ADP Non-Farm Employment Change was made public, posting a deep fall and a serious concern for the labor market. While experts forecasted the number to overcome that of last month’s (190k as compared with 189K), the actual number went the other way and landed at only 177K. On the other hand, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI helped to ease the traders’ concern when staying slightly higher than forecast (59.1 in compared with 58.6). The Crude Oil Inventories is in surplus condition at 1.2M after the deficit at -9.9M last month. In the FOMC Meeting took place later, the FOMC minutes implied the FED’s concern over the certain impacts from the trade war with China, but remain positive with the gradual tightening plan. As a result, the Greenback value against other major currencies dropped considerably over the week with the worldwide traders sharing the same concern. In the same day on the opposite shore, the Bank of England (BOE) Carney had his speech named “From Protectionism to Prosperity” at the Great Exhibition of the North. The Pound – Greenback this week also witnessed a sharp rise mostly thanks to the drop in USD’s value.
Canada economy took the stage on Friday with the issue of a variety of indices, from the Employment Change to Unemployment rate. The Employment Change printed a positive view on the market with the 31.8K more people employed, as compared with -7.5K people last month. The Unemployment rate, however, revealed a different side of the labor market with 6% of the labor force unemployed this June. Trade Balance is another problem with the deficit of 2.8B in May, posting a considerable decrease from last month. The Loonie, in contrast, had its value climbed against the Greenback this week mostly thanks to the plunge of USD also. In the U.S, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Average Hourly Earnings m/m (slight fall from 0.3% last month to 0.2%), Non-Farm Employment Change (213K from forecast at 195K), and Unemployment Rate rose a little to 4% from 3.8% of June.
In the cryptocurrency sector, the leading Bitcoin continued to have a downward tendency this week. At the time of writing, BTC/USD is trading around $6,599.8.