The week started with the release of German IFO Business Climate. As that the index has not exceeded the forecast since January 2018, that practice did not change this time with the actual published number was 101.8, a little bit lower than the forecast at 101.9. “The tailwind enjoyed by the German economy is calming down,” IFO chief Clemens Fuest said.
On Tuesday, the Conference Board Inc. from the U.S announced the CB Consumer Confidence of June at 126.4, posting a slight fall from prediction at 127.6 and especially from last month’s 128.8. According to Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board: "Consumer confidence declined in June after improving in May", and "Consumers' assessment of present-day conditions was relatively unchanged, suggesting that the level of economic growth remains strong. While expectations remain high by historical standards, the modest curtailment in optimism suggests that consumers do not foresee the economy gaining much momentum in the months ahead."
Wednesday was covered with statements and speeches from central banks around the world. Ahead of that, ANZ released the ANZ Business Confidence of June at -39, printing a deep fall from May’s -27.2. A few hours then, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand officially announced the Official Cash Rate at 1.75%, which remained the same from last time’s. Given our forecast last week that the Reserve Bank governor Orr might hint that rates can be held longer than forecast at present, it could play the main role in the significant fall of NZD/USD with four continuous days plunging before a modest recovery on Friday closed the week. Meanwhile, in the U.S, the Core Durable Goods Orders m/m (CDGO) and Crude Oil Inventories were released with an unpredicted drop of the CDGO (1.9% last month to -0.5%), while the oil index also witnessed a deep fall to -9.9M from last week’s -5.9M.
In Canada, the Bank of Canada (BOC) Governor Poloz delivered his speech titled "Let Me Be Clear: From Transparency to Trust and Understanding". He claimed that given where the economy is, the economy was in such a situation where the economy will warrant higher rates, and they would ensure that to be a gradual process. At the same time, the BOE Governor Carney had his speech about the Financial Stability Report in London, where he focused on risk at a global level, admitting global risks could become longstanding risks in interest rates. The Pound responded relatively positive with a recovery on Friday after 3 continuous falls in the value of GBP/USD.
On Thursday, the EU Economic Summit was held in Brussels, with the focal point is the discussion to faster the Brexit process. In the U.S, the Final GDP q/q was published with a slight fall to 2.0% from last quarter’s 2.2% in the weakest performance in consumer spending in nearly five years. The Greenback responded with a rise in value towards other major currencies such as EUR and GBP this week.
On Friday, the U.K’s Office for National Statistics announced the Current Account of the 1st quarter at -17.7B, printing a considerable rise from last quarter’s -19.5B. In Canada, the GDP m/m was released by the Statistics Canada with a climb to 0.1% from the forecast at 0.0%. Meanwhile, the BOC also published the BOC Business Outlook Survey with a bright scenario of the sale sector. The USD/CAD responded with a deep fall over the week, especially on Thursday and Friday.
In the cryptocurrency sector this week, Bitcoin witnessed a slight fall. At the time of writing, BTC/USD is trading around $6,425.8.