› MARKET REVIEW, JUN 11 – JUN 15, 2018

MARKET REVIEW, JUN 11 – JUN 15, 2018


Upcoming week promises to be extremely interesting. Monday starts with the return of the price to the corridor 1,176-1,184. Short visit of Donald Trump to the G-7 summit affected dollar, causing it to drop. On Saturday, he flew to Singapore, where on Tuesday the historic summit of the US president will be held with the leader of the DPRK Kim Jong-un.

Volatile releases will start on Tuesday. ZEW economic sentiment in Germany, US Core CPI in May, which is expected to accelerate by 0.1%.

Eurogroup meeting starts on Wednesday, its results will become known on Thursday. And the US will have the Fed meeting, and plausible raise of the interest rate by 0.25%. At 18:30 GMT, the Fed will have a press conference, and Jerome Powell will tell about the nearest plans of the Fed. But the main attention will be focused on the forecasts concerning the number of interest rate hikes, if the Fed signals about two more increases this year, the dollar bulls will start a confident offensive.

On Thursday, attention will be focused on the ECB meeting. Noone expects changes in the interest rate. Last week Peter Prat said that at this meeting the regulator will announce the deadline for the completion of the quantitative easing program. That, in turn, will return investors' interest to the single European currency.

On Friday, more attention will also be drawn to the Eurozone. ECB member Benoit Coeuré will speak. United States will publish an index of industrial activity in June and industrial production in May.

As you can see, the week is very busy and in case of the signal about two more interest rate rises from the Fed, it can continue to bearish movement. In the case of a signal about the completion of the QE program this year and more "pigeon" of the rhetoric of the American regulator market can go into a more confident bullish trend.

MARKET REVIEW, JUN 11 – JUN 15, 2018


Report on the labor market and inflation rate in the UK will be published this week. Inflation acceleration and a strong employment record can inspire British bulls to recover losses in the recent months, pending the BoE interest rate.

Currently pair is in the narrow price corridor with the support at 1.3428. Already his monday we could notice several attempts to break it through, but, for now, without success. Technically, short-term there is no defined trend of this pair. Many important macro statistical data on British pound will be published this week. Some of it we’ve mentioned above. In case, most of it will be positive or negative it can push pair to form clear trend.

Also, taking into account current events and results on the recent G-7 meeting, there are many chances that already today, that level will be overtaken and pair will start its bullish movement targeting at 1.3550.

MARKET REVIEW, JUN 11 – JUN 15, 2018


Under the tightening of US monetary policy, the US dollar is very interesting to watch it in pairs with currencies, whose central banks withstand an ultra soft monetary policy. In this case, it is the Japanese yen, which more than the other currencies reacts to the yield of American ten-year debt bonds.

In case on Wednesday, the Fed raises the interest rate to 2%, it will spur the yield of US debt bonds and trigger the flow of capital from Asia to the United States.The probability of raising the Fed's rate on Wednesday is above 90% so it means that already today we can see market reaction to that. After all, everyone wants to buy cheaper, and sell more expensive.

The Bank of Japan, however, stands the pigeon rhetorics and does not plan to raise the rate, leaving the rate at minus 0.1%. Therefore, pair definately deserves attention unequivocal and the nearest maximum of 111.4 is the most modest goal, others will wait 112.00 and above.

MARKET REVIEW, JUN 11 – JUN 15, 2018


Seemingly it is hard for Gold to leave away the psychological level of 1300,00. A lot of important events are to happen this week, and the summit of the Big Seven took place on the previous one, where the American leader showed himself not in the best light. Tomorrow, a historic summit between US President Donald Trump and the leader of the DPRK, Kim Jong-un will be held. If the meeting goes smoothly, and American leader does not do something unexpectedly, though we already know what he can. Plus, an increase in the Fed's interest rate on Wednesday, will increase the yield of US debt securities. The above facts will force investors to withdraw from the shelter - assets in favor of high yield of US securities.

The nearest target is 1290.00.

MARKET REVIEW, JUN 11 – JUN 15, 2018

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