Investors don’t trust "hawkish" comments from ECB anymore, they mostly consider statistical macro data from the Eurozone. The ECB is trying to reduce the importance of the European economy slowdown, the reduction of the german exports for three consecutive months, the drop in retail sales, the fourth month in a row - drop in business confidence. These factors simply do not give a chance to euro-bulls to counterattack.
At the same time, industrial production in Germany went up by 1%, as well as the trade balance in March. But these indicators are leveled by the abovementioned facts. The head of the Federal Reserve System Jerome Powell has already spoke, supporting the American currency, that is perfectly seen on the chart. After testing 1.88 level , the bears went further to the next psychological level 1.80.
At 14:00 GMT, the US will publish the JOLTs Job openings in March, but the main attention will be focused on the Donald Trump’s at 18:00 GMT. Investors expect many things to be discussed, also they wait answers on Iran and the trade war with China. After all, all these "nuances" are reflected in the global economy as a whole.
There are no factors that can change the trend today. Though bears are not frisky, but will be lead by the market. The immediate goal, as described above, is 1.80.
Last week black gold inventories went up and another nine drilling rigs were opened (in total 834) in the United States most likely are to give an impressive push to the bears. But, the uncertainty in the US position towards Iran does not allow the price to drop. As Donald Trump said earlier, the nuclear agreement of 2015 is unacceptable for the US, and exit from it will automatically activate sanctions against Iran. That fact will limit production by 0.5 million barrels. Traders have already refrain from opening trades, waiting on the decision of the White House.
Also the price is supported by the intention of the OPEC member countries to continue reducing production, thereby reducing the supply on the market, as a consequence of the price increase.
But today was received information that Trump does not intend to leave the agreement. That is going to remove the danger and literally bring down the price of black gold. So today 19:00 GMT, all attention will be drawn to the speech of the Head of the White House. It will be possible to earn not only on oil, but also on commodity currencies (the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar for example).
GBP / USD
The US dollar regains losses vs British pound and trades near the lows of January this year. And the preliminary expectations for the pound sterling are not rosy. If a month ago there was no doubt about raising the interest rate of the Bank of England, so today the regulator can refer to the weak statistics of Britain, leaving the rate at the same level.
In this case even a greater decline of the British pound is possible. And now the level of 1.35 is being tested. Donald Trump is the only one who can prevent bears from breaking this level. If he refuses from the Iranian nuclear agreement, than it can cause negative investors and traders to become negative towards the US dollar. But if the US president is more prudent, it makes sense to gain positions for further sale of the British pound.
Today, considering all factors, the level of 1.34 is the nearest target.