The week started with a monthly publication of Australia and New Zealand Banking Group – the ANZ Business Outlook, announcing 23.4% of businesses are pessimistic about their year ahead, down 3 points from March. According to the survey, Services was the most optimistic sector while Agriculture was on the other side. As a result, the NZD/USD exchange rate had two days plunging from 0.707 to 0.699 and only recovered a little bit on Thursday.
On Tuesday, traders were busy with statements and reports from around the world. The Board of Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.5% for a record-breaking 19th consecutive meeting, which was continued by the fall of AUD/USD exchange rate from 0.752 to 0.749. In England, the slight one-point fall of Manufacturing PMI to 53.9 was followed by a bearish development of GBP/USD exchange rate with a fall of nearly 2%. On the other hand, New Zealand traders would be happy to know that the employment rate of the country had risen to 0.6% from 0.4% of last quarter when the unemployment rate had dropped slightly to 4,4% from the fourth quarter’s 4.5% reading. This might explain the rise of the AUD in the next two day, before a gentle fall on Friday.
It was the Wednesday of The United States of America with news from a variety of sectors. The ADP Non-Farm Employment had an inconsiderable fall from 228k to 204k, crude oil inventories rose sharply to 6.2M, and a two-day Federal Reserve policy meeting ended with no change in rates as expected. The USA’s stable economy has been considered vital for the development of other world’s economies centers, therefore the mentioned optimistic news has led to the sharp rise of the USD versus other major currencies along the week.
Canada and Australia announced the March’s trade balance on Thursday, saying Australia recorded another monster trade surplus since May 2017, while Canada’s trade deficit continued to deepen to 4.1 billion USD. At the same time, the Services PMI of England increased slightly to 52.8 and the USA’s ISM non-manufacturing PMI fell 2 points to 56.8. The expansion trend has been still maintained in major economies and the governments have been expected to provide more credit to businesses to fortify it. On the other hand, SNB Chairman Jordan in his speech explained why sovereign money, an initiative launched from the experience of the last financial crisis and being put to the popular vote on 10 June 2018, would hurt Switzerland. After Jordan’s speech, the USD/CHF exchange rate rose gently on Thursday after a fall in three continuous days.
Later this week got a series of indices announcements from two top-tier economies, the USA and Australia. The average hourly earnings m/m in the USA fell a little bit from 0.2% to 0.1%, while non-farm employment change was reported at 163K, which is far below the expectation of 190K. In contrast, the unemployment rate is slightly under the expectation at 3.9%. The bright overview of the USA economy kept the USD at a dominant position. In Australia, the RBA Board’s view to hold the cash rate steady at 1.5% would assist the current progress of the economy, with steady monetary policy promoting stability and confidence. Therefore, it could be expected by traders that there would not be huge changes in monetary policy of Australia in short-term.
In the cryptocurrency sector, the world’s most famous one this week has spent most of the week oscillating. At the time of writing, BTC/USD is trading around $9,649.