The last week was rather ambiguous for the main currency pair, the USD had only began to recover, as the dubious economic indicators published on Thursday suspended its adjustment. Friday was a day off in many markets, and today most of Europe countries continues to rest. So, on Monday, the US has a chance to start a weekly rally without hindrance.
Monday will begin with the business activity index in the manufacturing sector for March (PMI) and from the ISM, which should remain at least unchanged and a slight drop forecast for the ISM index. Also, the index of employment in the manufacturing sector from ISM for March is published.
Tuesday will be more saturated. The EU will start the day with retail sales in Germany, a change in the number of unemployed in Spain, business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) in Spain, France, Italy, Germany and the EU as a whole. In the USA, the most volatile will be the statements by FRS members Neela Kashkari and Lael Brainard. Traditionally, by the end of the day, the American Petroleum Institute will publish preliminary data on crude oil reserves.
On Wednesday, the EU presents preliminary data on inflation for March and the unemployment rate for February. The US will publish a change in the number of non-farm workers from ADP for March, the index of business activity in services for March, the volume of orders for durable goods (month / month), the volume of industrial orders. The index of employment in the non-manufacturing sector (ISM) and PMI from ISM will be published too. And by the evening, the data on stocks of crude oil will be presented.
Thursday will begin with production orders in Germany, business activity indexes in the services sector in Italy, Spain and the EU as a whole. Producer price indices, retail sales in the EU will be published too. The US publishes data on imports / exports, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits, the balance of trade.
The first Friday of the month is always the most volatile on the US dollar, the official data of changes in the number of employed in the non-agricultural sector for March (NFP), the proportion of economically active population, the unemployment rate are published on this day. After the release of the main news, the head of the Federal Reserve System, Jerome Powell, summarizes it (after the release of data on the change in the number of drilling rigs.)
Preliminary, today we can expect the end of the consolidation, formed on Friday and that is currently traded in a narrow range of 1,232-1,231. The first barrier for the USD and the level of support for the euro is 1,230. In case of breakdown and consolidation below, the dollar may go lower.
Gold took its part of the market and slowly subsides, forming a downward short-term trend. The current consolidation is due to the rest of the market on Friday (commodity markets were also closed), from which we can see low volatility.
But not everything is so sad for the asylum-seeker, one can still expect growth against the backdrop of the fall of the IT sector. The shares of American giants have hardened, each on its negative news. Tesla also pulled NVidia and Panasonic, whose products the company uses when collecting their cars.
In this regard, we can expect a correction after the fall of the last few days. Now gold is trading in the corridor $ 1330- $ 1322. Tests of the upper border have already started on Monday morning, there are all chances to gain a foothold and go up to $ 1334.00. While the USD does not pressure the asset with good data, you can make good money on both growth and decline after the explicit strengthening of the US dollar (more details about the dollar in the EUR / USD pair).
Since the beginning of the year, the price of the Tesla's stocks lost almost $ 100 of their value, and this decline accelerated after intentions to launch an investigation of the fatal crash involving Tesla Model X were announced. The news provoked a massive sale of the company's shares, and then Moody's reported about a negative outlook for the company, since it lowered its credit rating.
Shareholders of the company after the incident (car accident, falling shares) decided to leave Elon Musk without fixed salary, instead he will receive options for the company shares.
And one more negative news for Tesla - they had to recall more than 120 000 Model S cars all over the world. The reason is the corrosion of the power steering bolts in the steering wheels of the car, which can make it difficult to control the transport.
Besides, Elon still cannot cope with the volume of production of Model 3. Nevertheless, this indicates a huge demand for electric cars, which is the reason why the Mask cannot cope with the necessary volumes of production.
Do not forget that there are quarterly reports ahead. Tesla’s report will be published on May 1, 2018, which is quite soon.